By Josh Appelbaum (vsin.com) Follow @josh_insights
For an in depth breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
Until then, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today…
7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (62-53) at New York Yankees (72-45)
The Rays have cashed bigly for contrarians in this AL East showdown, winning the opener 4-0 as +205 road dogs and winning again on Tuesday 3-1 as +140 road dogs. The slumping Yankees are now just 2-11 over their last 13 games while the Rays have now won four straight. In tonight's series finale, Tampa Bay starts veteran righty Corey Kluber (7-7, 4.40 ERA) and New York trots out fellow righty Domingo German (1-2, 4.18 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -165 home favorite and the Rays a +150 road dog. The public won't quit the pinstripes, but pros seem to be thinking "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and have once again jumped on Tampa Bay getting plus money, steaming the Rays down from +150 to +120. Tampa Bay has value as a road divisional dog with a reverse line move in their favor. The total is 8 with the under slightly juiced to -115 at some shops, signaling some under liability. The Yankees are 5-0 to the under their last five games. The Rays are 4-2 to the under their last six games and 4-1 to the under their last five games on the road.
7:20 p.m. ET: New York Mets (75-42) at Atlanta Braves (72-46)
The Braves have taken the first two games of this NL East grudge match, winning the opener 13-1 as -165 home favorites and then winning again on Tuesday 5-0 as -170 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Mets turn to ace righty Max Scherzer (8-2, 1.93 ERA) and the Braves counter with veteran righty Jake Odorizzi (4-4, 3.80 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -135 road favorite and Atlanta a +120 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Scherzer and the Mets in a bounce back spot, steaming New York up from -135 to -150. Road favorites are 388-260 (60%) this season. New York also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Mets are 60-25 as a favorite, 35-23 on the road and 51-26 against righties. Scherzer has a 1.30 ERA since coming off the injured list in early July. These teams faced off on August 6 and the Mets won 6-2, with Scherzer going 7 innings, giving up no runs and striking out 11. The Braves are just 7-16 as dogs this season.
9:45 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (53-63) at San Francisco Giants (59-57)
The Giants have taken the first two games of this NL West matchup, winning the opener 6-1 as -200 home favorites and winning 2-1 on a walk-off home run yesterday, cashing as -125 home favorites. The Giants have now won five straight to pull within 4.5 games of the final NL Wild Card spot. In tonight's rematch, Arizona hands the ball to righty Zach Davies (2-4, 4.11 ERA) and San Francisco taps lefty Carlos Rodon (11-6, 2.95 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -190 home favorite and the Diamondbacks a +175 road dog. Sharps aren't scared of the big chalk and are riding the hot hand, steaming the Giants up from -190 to -220. Home favorites -200 or more are 198-80 (71%). Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 445-250 (64%). San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7). The Giants are 48-32 as a favorite and 34-27 at home. The Snakes are 33-49 as a dog and 21-34 on the road. Davies has a 5.25 ERA in three August starts. Rodon has a 2.38 ERA in two August starts. San Francisco is 3-0 in Rodon's last three starts.
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